Do you believe the weather forecasters? I don't . I don't completely disregard their expertise, but I do not take their word for gospel. They are right some of the time. Not even most of the time. My tried and true way of figuring out weather patterns is seeing what the temperature is in the Midwest and then I know that a few days later that will be the weather in New York. It sounds insane but in reality its no more reliable than the Doppler radar the so called weather forecasters use.